Susan Wild on War & Peace
Axios.com summary: The House passed a symbolic war powers resolution directing President Trump to halt the use of military force against Iran unless he obtains approval from Congress.
The big picture: A classified briefing on the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani [by the US military] left Democrats and even some Republicans deeply skeptical, with many claiming that officials did not provide evidence that there was an "imminent" threat from Iran. Sens. Mike Lee (R-UT) and Rand Paul (R-KY) said they will vote in favor of a similar resolution in the Senate [S J Res 68].
What opponents are saying: Former national security adviser and notorious Iran hawk John Bolton tweeted: "The 1973 War Powers Resolution is unconstitutional. It reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of how the Constitution allocated foreign affairs authority between the President and Congress. The Resolution should be repealed." Pres. Trump quote tweeted Bolton and added: "Smart analysis, I fully agree!"
What supporters are saying: Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) was one of the few Republicans to vote in favor of the resolution, stating on the House floor: "Killing Soleimani was the right decision, but engaging in another forever war in the Middle East would be the wrong decision." Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) introduced legislation that would block funding for offensive military force against Iran without congressional authorization. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA) is also seeking to repeal the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), which has been used repeatedly to justify war in the Middle East in the wake of 9/11. Lee was the only member of Congress to vote against the AUMF in 2001, criticizing it as a "blank check."
Legislative outcome: H Con Res 83 Passed House 224-194-13 on 1/9/20; S J Res 68 passed Senate 55-45-0 on 2/13/20. Vetoed 5/6; Senate veto override failed 5/7/20.
Politico.com in OPPOSITION, 3/25/21: Republicans who opposed repealing the 2002 authorization said that it should be replaced because Iraq is still home to terror groups that threaten the United States. Rep. Michael McCaul called for consultations with first in order to craft a replacement. "Real AUMF reform requires Congress and the administration working together on actual text to replace the aging 2001 and 2002 AUMFs to provide authorities needed to keep the American people, and, most importantly, our deployed troops, safe from terrorists," McCaul said.
Heritage Foundation in SUPPORT (1/6/20): There has been an open and vibrant debate about whether the 2001 AUMF covers ISIS, a terrorist organization that did not even exist when the 2001 statute was passed and has disavowed and formally broken away from al-Qaeda, the group that is covered by the 2001 AUMF. Yet both the Obama and Trump Administrations claim that the 2001 AUMF covers ISIS and associated forces. Congress has shied away from the much-needed debate about whether the 2002 Iraq AUMF is no longer necessary.
Legislative Outcome: Passed House 268-161-2 on H.R.256 on 6/17/2021 (rollcall 172; no vote on S.J.R.10 nor H.R.3261 in 2021)
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Open Seats / Turnovers 2022:
AL-5: Mo Brooks (R) running for AL Senator
CA-37: Karen Bass (D) running for mayor of Los Angeles
FL-10: Val Demings (D) running for FL Senator
FL-13: Charlie Crist (D) running for FL governor
HI-2: Kai Kahele (D) running for MD governor
MD-4: Anthony G. Brown (D) running for attorney general of Maryland
MO-4: Vicky Hartzler (R) running for MO Senator
MO-7: Billy Long (R) running for MO Senator
NY-1: Lee Zeldin (R) running for NY governor
NY-3: Thomas Suozzi (D) running for NY governor
NC-8: Ted Budd (R) running for NC Senator
NC-11: Madison Cawthorn (R) Incumbent lost renomination
OH-13: Tim Ryan (D) running for OH Senator
OK-2: Markwayne Mullin (R) running for OK Senator
OR-5: Kurt Schrader (D) Incumbent lost renomination
PA-17: Conor Lamb (D) running for PA Senator
SC-7: Tom Rice (R) Incumbent lost renomination
TX-1: Louie Gohmert (R) running for attorney general of Texas
VT-0: Peter Welch (D) running for VT Senator
Special Elections 2021:
LA-2: Troy Carter (R, April 2021)
LA-5: Julia Letlow (R, March 2021)
NM-1: Melanie Stansbury (D, June 2021)
OH-11: Shontel Brown (D, Nov. 2021)
OH-15: Mike Carey (R, Nov. 2021)
TX-6: Jake Ellzey (R, July 2021)
Hot Races 2022:
CA-27: Christy Smith (D) vs. Mike Garcia (R)
FL 27: Annette Taddeo (D) vs. Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
GA-7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) lost redistricting race to Lucy McBath (D)
GA-10: Vernon Jones(R) vs. Paul Broun (R,lost May 24 primary) to replace Jody Hice (R) running for Secretary of GA
ME-2: Bruce Poliquin (R) rematch against Jared Golden (D)
MI-10: John James (R) - running for newly redistricted seat
MI-11: Andy Levin (D) redistricted to face Haley Stevens (D)
MT 1: Ryan Zinke (R) - running for newly created seat
MT-2: Al Olszewski(R) vs. Sam Rankin(Libertarian) vs. Matt Rosendale(R)
NJ-7: Thomas Kean Jr. (R) challenging Tom Malinowski (R)
NY-10: Bill de Blasio (D) challenging Mondaire Jones (D)
NY-11: Max Rose (D) challenging Nicole Malliotakis (R)
NY 12: Carolyn Maloney (D) redistricted to face Jerry Nadler (D)
RI-2: Seth Magaziner (D) vs. Allan Fung (R)
RI-1: Allen Waters (R) vs. David Cicilline (D)
TX-34: Mayra Flores (R) - Elected SPEL June 2022; general election Nov. 2022 against Vicente Gonzalez (D)
WA-4: Brad Klippert (R) challenging Dan Newhouse (R)
WV-2: David McKinley lost a redistricting race to fellow incumbent Alex Mooney
Special Elections 2022:
AK-0: Sarah Palin (R) vs. Al Gross (Independent)
CA-22: Connie Conway (R) replaced Devin Nunes on June 7.
FL-20: Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D) replaced Alcee Hastings on Jan. 11.
MN-1: vacancy left by Jim Hagedorn (R), deceased Feb. 17; SPEL on August 9.
NE-1: Jeffrey Fortenberry (R) Resigned on March 31, after being convicted; Mike Flood (R) in SPEL on June 28.
NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R) running for SPEL Aug. 23 for seat vacated by Antonio Delgado (D), now Lt.Gov.
TX-34: Mayra Flores (R) SPEL June 14 for seat vacated by Filemon Vela Jr. (D)